USA, the ex-tycoon’s slowdown: economy in recession, GDP -0.3% in Q1 2025
WASHINGTON, May 2, 2025 – Can three months under Trump be enough to change the course of an economy? Apparently, yes. In the United States, the first quarter of 2025 closed in the red: Gross Domestic Product shrank by 0.3% on an annualized basis, while inflation climbed to 3.6%. A rude awakening for Trump’s America, who had promised a “new era of prosperity.”
But for the former president, re-elected to the White House last November, there’s no doubt who’s to blame: “It’s all Biden’s fault,” he declared at a press conference, pointing to “the disasters inherited from the Democratic administration.” The script isn’t new: it echoes what’s happening in Italy, where Giorgia Meloni has for months pinned the blame for economic troubles on her rival, Giuseppe Conte.
Not just a numbers game: Trump’s era slowdown is real
Behind the GDP contraction lies no accounting trick or technical quirk of statistical formulas. It’s a real slowdown in the actual economy. Some analysts initially suggested the drop was due to a surge in imports: many U.S. companies reportedly rushed to import goods ahead of new tariffs set to take effect in April.
Indeed, in the GDP formula, imports are subtracted from domestic production: the more you import, the more GDP falls. However, economists point out that this factor alone doesn’t explain the decline. “There’s no direct relationship where importing more means producing less,” some experts note. The reality is more complex—and more troubling: U.S. domestic production has genuinely slowed down.
The causes: Trump’s uncertainty and the end of the expansion cycle
There are two main reasons. On the one hand, the post-pandemic growth momentum that had supported the economy until late 2024 has run its course. On the other, uncertainty stemming from Trump’s early moves—threats of new trade wars and a revision of international treaties—has cooled investment and production.
A clear signal: Trump’s America starts uphill. Meanwhile, Europe pulls ahead
For the first time in years, the Eurozone has recorded a quarterly growth (+0.4%) higher than the U.S. A historic result that hasn’t gone unnoticed: “We’ve overtaken the United States,” they cheer in Brussels.
A slowdown with symbolic weight
Let’s be clear: the 0.3% annualized contraction translates to just a 0.07% drop compared to the previous quarter. **Small? Maybe. But significant—**especially compared to the +0.7% growth seen in the last quarter of 2024. A clear reversal of course.
And while it’s true that the U.S. economy remains strong in the long term, this early misstep sounds a warning bell for the White House. Trump, who had made economic growth a cornerstone of his campaign, now finds himself managing a real slowdown—not just a statistical one.
The blame-shifting rhetoric works for a while. But soon, the numbers will speak for themselves. And judging by these first figures, “Make America Great Again” seems to be starting… on the wrong foot.
Read also: Trump stumbles on tariffs: (almost) total u-turn, but China hit with 125%
ARTICLE ALSO AVAILABLE IN ITALIAN: L’inflazione corre al 3,6%. Ma per Trump è “tutta colpa di Biden”
